Expectations vs. Reality: How many cases of Korean Adoptees can TRC 3 reasonably be expected to investigate in 2 years?
TRC 3 will have a 2 year submission process from February 26th, 2026 - February 25th, 2028. This will be followed by a 2 year investigation period.
The TRC 2 investigation into Overseas Adoption ran from 2022-2025. 367 cases were submitted, but just 56 received judgments in 3 years of time.
We turned to ChatGPT to manage the expectations of Korean Adoptees, hundreds or even thousands of whom may submit their cases to TRC 3. Given the track record of TRC 2, we personally don’t think that very many of the submitted cases will be actually investigated or ruled upon. But we’d like to be proven wrong.
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We asked ChatPGT:
How many cases of Korean Adoptees can TRC 3 in Korea reasonably be expected to investigate in 2 years?
TRC 3 will begin on Feb 26, 2026 and have a 2 year submission period followed by a 2 year investigation period.
ChatGPT said:
”You’re asking specifically about adoptee cases, within the structure where Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Korea (TRC 3) begins Feb 26, 2026, has a 2-year submission window, followed by a 2-year investigation period.
Since TRC 3 has not yet published capacity projections, the only realistic way to estimate is by looking at performance under Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Korea (TRC 2) and adjusting for structure.
1️⃣ What TRC 2 Actually Managed (Adoptee Cases)
Under TRC 2:
~367 intercountry adoptee petitions were accepted.
Only 56 cases received formal determinations over roughly 3 years of active investigation.
~311 cases remained unresolved at mandate end.
That means:
About 18–20 finalized adoptee cases per year
Roughly 5–7% of total commission output went to adoptee cases (they were a small but complex category)
Adoptee cases are document-intensive and often involve:
Lost or falsified records
Agency cooperation issues
Overseas coordination
Divided commissioner opinions
They are typically slower than massacre or detention cases, which often rely on state archives.
2️⃣ What Changes Under TRC 3 Structure?
TRC 3 timeline:
2026–2028: Submission intake
2028–2030: Investigation period
This means:
No formal determinations until after submissions close (unless overlapping work is allowed).
Investigations will likely ramp up slowly in early 2028.
Real high-output period: 2028–2030 (2 years total).
So your question becomes:
How many adoptee cases can realistically be investigated and decided in a concentrated 2-year investigation phase?
3️⃣ Realistic Throughput Scenarios (2-Year Investigation Window)
Using TRC 2’s pace as baseline (~18–20 per year):
Conservative Scenario (similar pace as TRC 2)
15–20 determinations per year
→ 30–40 finalized cases in 2 years
Moderate Improvement Scenario (better staffing + backlog focus)
If TRC 3:
Prioritizes the ~311 pending cases
Improves evidentiary standards
Adds dedicated adoptee investigators
Then:
25–40 determinations per year
→ 50–80 finalized cases in 2 years
Highly Optimistic Scenario
Only if:
Clear political mandate
Streamlined voting among commissioners
Strong archival access
Focused backlog processing
Then:
Possibly 100+ determinations in 2 years
But this would be a major acceleration compared to TRC 2 and is less likely.
4️⃣ What Is Most Reasonable?
Based strictly on past demonstrated capacity:
A reasonable expectation is 30–80 finalized adoptee cases over a 2-year investigation period.
The upper end assumes real structural improvements.
The lower end assumes TRC 3 operates similarly to TRC 2.
It would be unrealistic to expect resolution of all ~300+ suspended cases within only two years unless adoptee cases become a top institutional priority.”